Debunking Ken Ham Using Artificial Intelligence

Ark Encounter ©2015 Mark Aaron Alsip.

I created my first neural network over forty years ago, when artificial intelligence (AI) was a nascent blip on the radar. This field of study has advanced significantly in the intervening decades and, in my humble opinion, still has a long way to go. But I see promise.  I do not see a future in which machines are taking over the world. I do see an economy where jobs are not going to be replaced by artificial intelligence, but, rather, those with a knowledge of AI are going to have a distinct advantage over those who don’t. 

Self-driving cars? I could be wrong, and will admit it when proven so, but based on four decades’ experience, I suspect we are further from this goal than Elon Musk will admit. Sorry, but not sorry, I’ve been around longer, and have seen what can go wrong. Others in my field, many far more proficient than I, are bravely stepping forward to issue the same cautious warnings.  I don’t think we’re as close as the new hype would have us believe.

And yet, Large Language Models such as ChatGPT have made computer science fun again. As Bad Science Debunked makes its return after a two year absence, I thought it would be fun to apply Artificial Intelligence techniques to one of my favorite purveyors of pseudoscience: Ken Ham and his Answers in Genesis (AIG) industry.

In this post, I’ll be going after what I admit is low hanging fruit: food and animal capacity on the Ark. I know this topic has been covered ad nauseam, but I’d like to demonstrate how easy it is to use a conman’s own words against him. And it is Ham’s own words (and data) that I’ll be using. For reference, we’ll be using this AIG article:

How Many Animals Were on Noah’s Ark?¹

In his article, Ham claims, without any backing evidence whatsoever, that there were 6,744 animals on the Ark and their average size was that of a sheep. OK, let’s take that and run with it. My teachers always told me to show my work, but I fear that page after page of math will have my readers running the other direction, so I’ll give you my prompt, the ChatGPT response, and next to the response, there’ll be a black arrow you can click to show/hide the math. See sample image below.

(click the black arrow next to “Response” to show/hide the math and work done by ChatpGPT.

OK, enough chatter, let’s get started!

Prompt to GPT: Approximate the total volume of Noah’s Ark.

Response: 1,518,750 cubic feet.

To estimate the total volume of Noah’s Ark according to the dimensions given in the Bible, we can refer to the Book of Genesis, which provides specific measurements. In Genesis 6:15, the ark is described as being 300 cubits long, 50 cubits wide, and 30 cubits high. The exact length of a cubit can vary, as it was based on the length of the forearm from the elbow to the tip of the middle finger and was typically about 18 inches (45.72 cm) in ancient times.

Using the commonly accepted length of 18 inches for a cubit, we can calculate the volume of the Ark in cubic feet:

1. Convert the dimensions from cubits to feet: Multiply each dimension by 18 inches (or 1.5 feet, since there are 12 inches in a foot).
2. Calculate the volume: Multiply the length, width, and height in feet to get the volume in cubic feet.

Let’s perform these calculations.

The estimated total volume of Noah’s Ark, based on the dimensions given in the Bible (300 cubits long, 50 cubits wide, and 30 cubits high) and using the commonly accepted cubit length of 18 inches (1.5 feet), is approximately 1,518,750 cubic feet.

Approximately one and a half million cubit feet. Keep this number in the back of your head. It’s going to come up later.

Ken Ham doesn’t give us any information on the species of sheep or their approximate dimensions (he just says “average sheep”), so we’re left to make some assumptions here. First, we must dispense with Ham’s claim that God took baby animals on the ark. Baby mammals who have not been weaned can’t survive without their mother’s milk. They could not have made the journey to the ark on their own. Plus, Ham violates one of his own rules here. The Bible, in his view, is the absolute word of God, and nowhere does it say Noah took babies.

I’ll endeavor to pick, from the thousands of possible choices, an average sheep for our calculations. I like bighorn sheep. Maybe Ken Ham won’t. But hey, he got to pull out of thin air not only the average animal but a suspiciously precise-looking head count. So I claim dibbs on the species.

Prompt to GPT: I’m going to give you some data about dimensions and weight of an average bighorn sheep. Please calculate the average volume a sheep would occupy, assuming a simple rectangular volume for sake of simplicity. Please present your output in english units of measurement (rather than metric), preferably cubic feet. Please show your math.

Your data is:^3,4
Height: 46.5”-65.4” | 118-166 cm
Width: 13.8”-19.3” | 35-49 cm
Length: 51.2”-72.8” | 130-185 cm
Shoulder Height: 31.5”-39.4” | 80-100 cm
Weight: 110-315 lb | 50-143 kg

Response: The average volume occupied by a bighorn sheep, assuming a simple rectangular volume, is approximately 33.22 cubic feet

The average volume occupied by a bighorn sheep, assuming a simple rectangular volume, is approximately ( 33.22 ) cubic feet. Here’s how the calculation was done:

1. Average Dimensions (Inches):

• Height: (46.5 + 65.4)/2 inches
• Width: (13.8 + 19.3}/ 2 inches
• Length: (51.2 + 72.8)/2 inches

1. Convert Dimensions to Feet:

• 1 inch = 1/12 feet
• Average Height in Feet: (Average Height in Inches} * 1/12
• Average Width in Feet: {Average Width in Inches) * 1/12
• Average Length in Feet: ( Average Length in Inches) * 1/12

1. Volume Calculation:

• Volume in Cubic Feet: Average Height in Feet * Average Width in Feet * Average Length in Feet

Applying these steps, the calculated volume is ( 33.22 ) cubic feet.

Prompt to GPT: Great. Now use this volume calculation for one sheep an do the simple math to come up with the volume needed for a flock of 6,744 sheep. Again, please show your work.

Response: Therefore, a flock of 6,744 sheep would require approximately 224,059.62 cubic feet.

To calculate the total volume needed for a flock of 6,744 sheep, we multiply the volume of one sheep by the number of sheep in the flock:

• Volume of one sheep: ( 33.22 ) cubic feet
• Number of sheep in the flock: ( 6,744 )

The calculation is as follows:

Total Volume} = 33.22 * 6744 = 224,059.62 cubic feet

Now comes the problem of food. AIG only gave us sheep to work with, though we know that carnivores would have had to have been on the ark. We can use hay for food estimates for our “average sheep,” but we’re ignoring the reality that the digestive systems of the carnivores did not evolve to enable them to obtain sufficient nutrition from hay, and so they would have all died. Or eaten the sheep. Or been left on a ship full of stinking, rotten meat that would have killed them from parasites, toxicity, or other causes.

But we started with sheep, it’s all we have to work with. Let’s make some hay:

Prompt to GPT: Now let’s talk about food. We’ll assume the sheep eat hay. According to my information,² a typical bale of hay is 14x13x86 inches in size (width, height, length) and weighs an average of 65 pounds. Calculate the volume occupied by one bale of hay.

Response: the calculated volume of one bale of hay is 9.069.06 cubic feet

The volume occupied by one bale of hay, given its dimensions of 14x13x86 inches (width, height, length), is approximately ( 9.06 ) cubic feet. Here’s the breakdown of the calculation:

1. Convert Dimensions to Feet:

• Width: ( 14 ) inches = ( 14 * 1/12 ) feet
• Height: ( 13 ) inches = ( 13 * 1/12) feet
• Length: ( 86 ) inches = ( 86 * 1/12 ) feet

1. Volume Calculation:

• Volume in Cubic Feet: Width in Feet * Height in Feet * Length in Feet

Applying these steps, the calculated volume of one bale of hay is ( 9.06 ) cubic feet.

Hang in there. We’re getting close. Please keep in mind, the purpose of this exercise is not so much to disprove something that’s already been debunked ad nauseam; rather, it’s to demonstrate thought processes and techniques useful in using Artificial Intelligence and Prompt Engineering, and encourage the reader to embark on his/her own explorations.

So, having some necessary information on our food source, the next logical step is to estimate how much of that food will be needed for a year-long tour.

Prompt to GPT: Now using the dimensions and weight of a single bighorn sheep calculated earlier, estimate the nutritional needs of that one sheep. Give me an answer for just a single day, and for an entire year. In your answer, include an estimate of how many bales of hay would be required to meet these requirements, for both a day and an entire year.

Response: to meet the nutritional requirements of one bighorn sheep, approximately 1/10th of a bale of hay is needed per day, and about 36 bales are needed for an entire year.

To estimate the nutritional needs of a single bighorn sheep and the corresponding amount of hay required, we’ll follow these steps:

1. Estimate the Daily and Annual Food Intake Needs:

• A general guideline for sheep is that they consume about 2-4% of their body weight in dry matter daily. We’ll use an average value of 3% for this calculation.
• Average weight of a bighorn sheep: We’ll take the midpoint of the provided range, which is (110 + 315) / 2) pounds.

1. Calculate Daily and Annual Food Intake in Pounds:

• Daily intake: Average Weight} * 3%
• Annual intake: Daily Intake * 365 days

1. Determine the Number of Hay Bales Required:

• Since each bale weighs 65 pounds, we divide the daily and annual intake by this weight to find out how many bales are needed.

Let’s proceed with these calculations.

Based on the calculations:

1. Average Weight of a Bighorn Sheep: ( 10 + 315) / 2 = 212.5 ) pounds
2. Daily and Annual Food Intake:

• Daily Intake: ( 212.5 * 3% = 6.38 ) pounds
• Annual Intake: ( 6.38 * 365 = 2,326.88 ) pounds

1. Number of Hay Bales Required:

• Daily: 6.38 / 65 ~ 0.098 bales (About 1/10th of a bale)
• Annually:2,326.88 / 65 ~ 35.8 bales

Thus, to meet the nutritional requirements of one bighorn sheep, approximately 1/10th of a bale of hay is needed per day, and about 36 bales are needed for an entire year.

And at this point, dear reader, imagine, please, ominous music swelling in volume and intensity, because we are about to deal a death blow to the ark, using Ken Ham’s own numbers:

Prompt to GPT: Using the annual hay bale requirement for one sheep, calculate how many bales of hay would be needed for the entire flock of 6,744 sheep for one year. In addition to the number of bales of hay, use your earlier calculations for the volume of a bale of hay to come up with the total volume of hay needed to feed the flock for an entire year

Response: to feed the flock of 6,744 sheep for one year, approximately 241,422.23 bales of hay would be required, occupying a total volume of about 2,186,771.27 cubit feet.

To feed the entire flock of 6,744 sheep for one year, the calculations are as follows:

1. Total Number of Hay Bales Needed:

• Annual hay bales needed per sheep: ( 35.8 ) bales (as calculated earlier)
• Number of sheep in the flock: ( 6,744 )
• Total bales for the flock: 35.8 * 6,744 = 241,422.23 bales

1. Total Volume of Hay Needed:

• Volume of one bale of hay: 9.06 cubic feet (as calculated earlier)
• Total volume needed to feed the flock: 241,422.23 * 9.06 = 2,186,771.27 cubic feet

Do you see the problem? Let’s let ChatGPT point it out to us.

Prompt to GPT:

Do you see the problem? Remember at the beginning I asked the reader to keep in mind the volume of the ark. Let’s let ChatGPT point out Ken Ham’s error…

Prompt to GPT: Wait a minute. I see trouble. Please compare the total volume that you just calculated for the hay to the total volume of the ark (1,518,750 cubic feet) calculated when we began this conversation. Answer two questions: (1) was there enough room for the food on the ark, and (2) what percentage of the total ark volume would be occupied by the food? Remember to show your math.

Response: there was not enough room for the food on the ark. The total volume of hay needed for the flock for one year exceeds the total volume of the ark by 143.98%

1. Was There Enough Room for the Food on the Ark?

• No, there was not enough room for the food on the ark. The total volume of hay needed for the flock for one year exceeds the total volume of the ark, which is 1,518,750 cubic feet.

1. Percentage of the Total Ark Volume Occupied by the Food:

• The percentage of the total ark volume that would be occupied by the food (hay) is approximately 143.98%.

These results indicate that the volume of hay needed to feed the flock for one year is about 143.98% of the available space in the ark, meaning there is not enough room for all the hay required.

Ouch. Using Answers in Genesis’ own numbers, there wasn’t enough room for the food. We are out of room to the tune of 43.98% of the ark volume (almost half!) But wait, let’s not forgot the animals had to be on board also.

Prompt: Let’s not forget the animals. You previously calculated we’d need 224,059.62 cubic feet for the sheep. Add this volume to the total volume required for the hay and repeat the last calculation, this time answering the question, “was there enough room for both the food AND the animals on the ark?” Tell me by what percentage the ark volume was exceeded when both food and animals are included

Response: This would result in a total occupation of 158.74% of the available ark space.

You’re correct. When considering the total volume occupied by both the sheep and the hay, it would exceed the ark’s total volume by 58.74%. This means that the combined requirements for the sheep and their food result in a total occupation of 158.74% of the available space.

So by AIG’s own numbers, the ark was 58.74% too small to hold the animals and their food.

Conclusion

We could go on forever. Astute readers will have noted that the ark was also supposed to have had room for eight humans and all their food and necessities for an entire year. Visit the Ark Encounter in Williamstown, KY (no, please don’t!) and you’ll see a roomy ship with room for individual sleeping quarters, workshops, an indoor garden, and more.

And yet, using the very data provided to us by the man who’ll be happy to charge over $50/ticket to view this imaginary floating world, we can see there wasn’t even enough room for the animals and their food.

Water, you ask? What about water for the animals and people? One can only assume Ken Ham will argue that it rained every day so the water could be collected… wait… no, it can’t be collected, there was nowhere to store it… perhaps all the living creatures were able to drink in real time, as the rain came down.

So, the prosecution rests. AIG didn’t really give us a lot of data to work with, but they did give us enough, and I believe we filled in any missing gaps fairly by, for example, using average animal sizes. I encourage readers to use this AI Prompt Engineering exercise as a starting point, not a final answer. Try dividing the 6,744 animals into half herbivores and half carnivores. Play with average daily nutrition requirements for, say, lions the size of sheep (as Ham claims) and work up a system for storing and providing enough meat for those creatures.

One final warning: with Artificial Intelligence, you are responsible for the results. ChatGPT did not always give me the expected answers as I worked through this exercise. I did sometimes have to go back and refine my prompts. Be careful in how you ask your questions. Be very clear about the data you’re providing, and be even more clear about how you expect the results to be presented. You’ll notice that sometimes I repeated numbers (like the volume of the ark) in subsequent prompts, even though we’d already calculated this value much earlier. In very long conversations, the language model can “forget” work that was done much earlier on.

With these caveats in mind, this is an exciting, developing technology. I don’t believe it will ever replace humans, but it can be a valuable helpmate in simplifying tasks such as debunking a con man who wraps himself in a cloak of God’s words to tell innocent little children lies, such as stories about humans walking with dinosaurs.

References

(1) How Many Animals Were on Noah’s Ark?
https://answersingenesis.org/blogs/ken-ham/2022/09/08/how-many-animals-were-noahs-ark/
Retrieved 07 Dec 2023

(2) Bale Sizes and Shapes — Picking What’s Right for You
https://www.agproud.com/articles/32770-bale-sizes-and-shapes-picking-what-s-right-for-you
Retrieved 07 Dec 2023

(3) Facts About Sheep (Live Science)
https://www.livescience.com/52755-sheep-facts.html
Retrieved 07 Dec 2023

(4) Bighorn Sheep (Ovid canadensis)
https://www.dimensions.com/element/bighorn-sheep-ovis-canadensis
Retrieved 07 Dec 2023

John Hagee Repeats His “Blood Moon” Errors–On Film

Total lunar eclipse. October 17, 2014.  (Photo by the author.)

With a beautiful total lunar eclipse on slate for Saturday, April 4, old earth creationist John Hagee has resurfaced with revived claims of prophecies in the skies.  I wrote about Hagee earlier this year, debunking his claim that a tetrad (series of 4) “blood moons” was a sign from the heavens that something significant was about to happen in Israel.

This time, Hagee is back with a movie.  “Four Blood Moons”¹ rehashes the false claims the pastor made in his book by the same name.  The film opened with a special one-day release on March 23 and returns for an encore on April 9.  Based on the movie’s trailer and interviews with Hagee, it doesn’t look like the creationist has added anything new to the claims I’ve already debunked.  So I’d like to just hit the highlights here.  For a thorough point-by-point refutation of Hagee’s claims, complete with references (NASA tables of solar eclipses, information on the Hebrew calendar, the pastor’s historical mistakes, etc.), please see my article “Oh Bloody…“.²

To review: the pastor claims that major events in the history of Israel are linked to total lunar eclipses occurring on the Jewish holidays of Passover and Sukkot.  The pattern that he sees goes something like this:

1. Tragedy knocks on the door of Israel and/or the Jewish people.
2. Miraculous victory is somehow snatched from the jaws of defeat.
3. (1) and (2) are announced in the heavens by a tetrad of “blood moons” (total lunar eclipses) that magically occur during one of two Jewish holy weeks.

Hagee’s conclusion: divine intervention in Israel, proven by an invisible hand controlling the positions of the sun, earth, and moon.

Wow.

As I explained in (excruciating?) detail in my earlier piece on this subject,² Hagee is wrong in nearly every way imaginable:

1. Holidays on the Hebrew calendar are tied to lunar phases because humans designed the calendar that way.  Periodic adjustments are made to the calendar–by humans–to keep seasons (and, as a result, religious holidays) “aligned”.  It’s no accident that the sun, moon, and earth are lined up in a certain way on a given Jewish holiday.  People constructed the calendar in that manner–and they go to a lot of trouble to keep it from changing, even periodically adding a temporary month to keep the holidays from drifting out of alignment.

2. Major events cited as miraculous by Hagee do not actually coincide with “blood moons”.  He apparently never bothered to check an almanac of eclipses.  His 1967 “Six Day War” example is a great illustration.  Yes, it was triumph from tragedy for Israel.  Unfortunately for the good pastor, there was no lunar eclipse on Passover or Sukkot in ’67.  Oops.

3. In fact, most major events in Israel’s history don’t occur anywhere near an eclipse.  If the heavens are being used as a signalling device, it’s broken most of the time.  I offer as evidence the Yom Kippur War of 1973.  If ever Israel turned tragedy into triumph, wouldn’t beating off the overwhelming surprise attack in 1973 be a prime example?  Where were the holiday eclipses?  Answer: there weren’t any.

4. Hagee’s command of history is shaky at best.  For example, America wasn’t “discovered” by Columbus as Hagee claims–there were already people living there when the explorer arrived.  In any event, he wasn’t the first outsider to arrive in North America.  And, while credence could be given to the minister’s claim that the United States became an eventual safe haven for the Jewish people, it certainly didn’t remain that way for the millions of Native Americans who died at the hands of European settlers.

And, dare I mention… there was no Passover/Sukkot eclipse in 1492?

John Hagee gets it wrong again.

Other than the simple truth that eclipses actually happen, John Hagee doesn’t even try to get his story straight.  And, for some reason, his followers eat his nonsense up.  It’s a shame that an event that’s beautiful and wondrous in its own right has to be linked to superstition and fear, and that those who follow Hagee won’t take the time to fact check him.

While not as awe-inspiring as total eclipses of the sun, lunar eclipses are still a treat–and visible from a larger portion of the earth’s surface than their solar counterparts.  To check visibility of the April 4 eclipse from your area of the world, NASA provides a nice map.³ Sky & Telescope magazine offers up a brief article on the eclipse along with timetables.⁴

Image Credits
Lunar eclipse photography by the author.  Copyright (c) 2015 Mark Aaron Alsip.  All rights reserved.

“John Hagee at Podium” from Wiki Commons, by owner Christians United for Israel.  Released into public domain by owner.  Image owner does not necessarily agree with or endorse the views expressed by the author.

References
Note: to avoid increasing search engine exposure for quack web sites, I use the DoNotLink service to obfuscate URLs.   You have my promise you’re being redirected to the web site indicated in the title 🙂

(1) Four Blood Moons (Movie Official Page–Facebook)
http://www.donotlink.com/eeey

(2) Oh Bloody…
https://badscidebunked.wordpress.com/2015/02/05/oh-bloody/

(3) Total Lunar Eclipse of 2015 Apr 04 (NASA)
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEplot/LEplot2001/LE2015Apr04T.pdf

Oh Bloody…

“Blood Moon” over Kentucky. Photo by the author.

As an avid astronomer, it would be nice to have just one celestial event that wasn’t hijacked by an astrologer, new age mystic, cult, or end-of-days preacher.^10,11,12  This time it’s the latter — old earth creationist John Hagee popping up with his twisted interpretation of last November’s “blood moon”, a beautiful lunar eclipse visible from much of the world.

Hagee believes that lunar eclipses are tied to major events in the history of Israel and the Jewish calendar.  He couldn’t be more wrong.

Following is a debunking in simple quote/response format using Hagee’s statements as they appeared in an online article published by CBN.¹  Since this is a science blog, I’ll concentrate mainly on the astronomy, but weave in enough history and religion to show just how far the preacher goes in violating his religion’s prohibition against lying.

What we’re going to see is that (1) there are no lunar eclipses occurring on most of the dates that Hagee claims, and (2) major events in Israel’s history occurred when there weren’t any eclipses, and (3) events on the Jewish calendar are tied to the lunar cycle because people designed it that way.

We’ve got a lot of ground to cover, so let’s get started…

 

John Hagee.

Quote:

“A blood moon is when the Earth comes between the sun and the moon,  […] and the sun is shining through the atmosphere of the Earth and casts up on the moon a red shadow.  And so the moon appears to be red.”

Response:  One point to Hagee.  He got something right.  Unfortunately, it’s all downhill from here…

 

Quote:

“The sun and the moon and the Earth are controlled by God almighty,” Hagee said. “He is the one that is getting them in a direct alignment on a certain day at a certain time — but each time, it’s a Passover or Sukkot.”

Response:  The paths of the sun and moon are controlled by gravity and inertia, just like all the other bodies in the universe.  But even if you grant Hagee the point and say that God created inertia and gravity, there’s still nothing special about a blood moon occurring on a Jewish holiday.

Jewish holidays are based on a lunar calendar, not a solar calendar.  This means that, from year to year, they don’t  begin on the same day of the solar calendar that Hagee uses (running from January through December).  Stay with me…

Lunar eclipses can only occur during a full moon, when the earth is between the sun and the moon.  It’s important to keep this in mind, so I’ll say it again: lunar eclipses (blood moons) can only occur during a certain phase of the moon (full moon).

It’s not a coincidence that the moon is in a certain phase when a given Jewish holiday begins–and it’s not a miracle–it’s the only time it can happen.  Judaism placed its holidays on a lunar calendar, just as Americans placed the 4th of July holiday on a solar calendar.

Compare a list of Jewish holidays to moon phases during 2014^2,3 and do the same for 2015^2,3 and 2016,^2,3 and you’ll quickly see the connection.  Keep in mind that the cited tables list solar calendar dates, but the Jewish holidays are based on a lunar calendar.  These different calendars add to the woo factor of Hagee’s miracles.  The Jewish holidays keep popping up on different dates on Hagee’s solar calendar and the moon appears to be “chasing” those holiday dates.  It’s magic!

Well, not really…

24-year Jewish calendar showing the month Adar II (the month of Adar bumped from its normal spot on the calendar by the leap-year addition Adar I). Click image for large version.

There’s a fun twist: it takes the moon a little over 29.5 solar days to orbit the earth, so the Jewish month is about an odd half solar day long.  Over time this “error” accumulates and would force holidays to occur out of season as days shift on the calendar.

To compensate, every few years, an extra month is inserted into the calendar.  The regular month of Adar becomes “Adar II”, and the temporary extra month is named “Adar I”.  This concept should be familiar to many — a solar year is really 365.25 days long, not 365.  Over time, this error would accumulate and the seasons/holidays of the solar calendar would become “off”.  (For Northern Hemisphere Christians, Christmas (December 25) would eventually occur in the summer!)

We know the corrective measure as the leap year.

Why am I banging away at the details like this?  To impress upon the reader just how hard people have worked throughout history to make sure that events such as religious holidays here on earth line up with an event going on up in the sky.

There’s an additional twist: in Judaism, days begin at nightfall, not at midnight as they do on the solar calendar.  For those of you keeping score at home, tying a calendar to both the moon and sun in ways like this technically makes the Jewish calendar a “lunisolar” calendar.  (You’re welcome).

But is there an eclipse every full moon? No.  This is because of yet another twist: with respect to the earth’s orbit around the sun (the “ecliptic”), the moon’s orbit forms an angle of approximately 5 degrees.  Put more simply, if you drew a line between the middle of the earth to the middle of the sun, the moon would appear to swing “above” or “below” the line by 5 degrees as it orbits.  Usually, when the moon is full, it is “above” or “below” our planet’s shadow, and no eclipse occurs.

So, given all of this information on Jewish holidays, full moons, and lunar eclipses, we’re finally ready to look at some actual historical events and Hagee’s claims, and see what, if anything, has been happening on certain Jewish holidays.  Can we make any prophecies of future events based on what we find?

 

Quote:

“I believe that in these next two years, we’re going to see something dramatic happen in the Middle East involving Israel that will change the course of history in the Middle East and impact the whole world.”

Response:  When is something not happening involving Israel that impacts the Middle East and the whole world?¹³  This is, remember, a country straddling the geographic heart and soul of 3 major world religions.  This kind of prophecy is as easy as predicting an earthquake on the San Andreas fault.  Can you be more specific please?

Israel’s 1948 War.  When is something of importance NOT happening here?  Click image to enlarge.

Quote:

In the past, the rare appearance of four blood moons on these feast days has coincided with major events for Israel and the Jewish people.

In 1492, Spain expelled the Jews. Columbus also discovered America, which became a safe haven for the Jewish people.

Response:  Columbus didn’t “discover” America.  There were millions of people living there when he arrived.  But the honor of being the first foreigner to discover the continent is seriously in doubt.⁵  Historians say that serious claimants include John Chabot and the Vikings.  But it doesn’t matter.  There were a lot of people living in America when Columbus arrived… consensus estimates seem to put the total around ten million, though some go higher.⁴

Unfortunately for Hagee there were no total eclipses of the moon in 1492.  There’s nothing even close.  Had he bothered to check, he would not have found totality before November 27, 1490 and then not again until April 2, 1493.¹⁶

Having already missed the mark with no total lunar eclipses in Columbus’ banner year, Hagee will be saddened to learn that not even his 1490 and 1493 eclipses occurred during Passover or Sukkot.^16,17,18

As a side-note… America did indeed become a safe haven for the Jewish people, as Hagee states, but sadly it did not remain so for the millions of people already living there when Columbus arrived.¹⁵

 

Quote:

 “In each of these blood moons, you have something that begins in tragedy and ends in triumph”

Response:  On October 6, 1973,  Arab states launched a surprise attack on Israel during Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the year in Judaism.  Israel was sent reeling by the attack but turned tragedy into triumph, reaching the outskirts of Damascus in Syria and completely encircling the Egyptian army in the Sinai Peninsula.⁶

There was no set of 4 blood moons.  There wasn’t even a lunar eclipse during the holidays.⁷

Wait a minute.  I thought events beginning with tragedy and ending in triumph were supposed to be signaled by blood moons?

Destroyed Israeli tank, 1973 Yom Kippur War. The war began in tragedy and ended in triumph.   There was no “blood moon.”

 

In all fairness to Hagee, I picked the 1973 date.  So let’s let John pick the date…

 

Quote:

“In 1967, Israel won the Six-Day War and recaptured Jerusalem.

“For the first time in 2,000 years, Jerusalem and the State of Israel were together again,” Hagee said.

Response:  It kills me when authors don’t take time to do their own research.  Notice that in the previous response, I picked the war, and could be accused of cheating.  This time, Hagee picked the war.  Let’s look at 1967:

In 1967 PLO attacks on Israel, Syrian attacks on Israeli civilian settlements, and massing of Egyptian troops on the Israeli border resulted in Israel launching an attack on Jordan, Egypt, and Syria.  The three main Arab belligerents were supported by 11 additional Arab countries and/or political factions.  In just 6 days, Israel won large swathes of new territory, turning tragedy into what some consider miraculous victory.⁸

There was no set of 4 blood moons.  There wasn’t even a lunar eclipse during the holidays.⁹

Israeli soldiers, 1967 “6 Day War”.  The war began in tragedy and ended in triumph.  There was no “blood moon.”

 

Quote:

“He said it’s still unclear what the coming blood moons will bring, but he is certain of one thing.”

Response:  Given Hagee’s horrendous track record in history and predictions, I don’t even want to know what that one thing is.

 

Totality is ending. So is this article.   Image by the author.

Image Credits

All lunar eclipse photography by the author.  Copyright (c) 2014 Mark Aaron Alsip.  All rights reserved.

“John Hagee at Podium” from Wiki Commons, by owner Christians United for Israel.  Released into public domain by owner.    Image owner does not necessarily agree with or endorse the views expressed by the author.

“24 year Jewish Calendar for Adar II” from Wiki Commons.  This work is in the public domain of the United States because copyright has expired due to publication date prior to January 1, 1923.

“Israeli Soldiers in 6 Day War” from Wiki Commons.  Released into public domain for all use by owner “ROSENMAN424“.  Image owner does not necessarily agree with or endorse the views expressed by the author.

“Destroyed Israeli Tank” from Wiki Commons.  Image is in public domain as a work of the Egyptian government.

“Israel 1948 War map” from Wiki Commons.  Image released into public domain by Mr. Edward J. Krasnoborski and Mr. Frank Martini, Department of History, U.S. Military Academy.   Map authors do not necessarily agree with or endorse the views expressed by the author.

 

References

Note: To avoid increasing search engine exposure for quack web sites while still providing a link to all my references (like a good scientist should), I use the DoNotLink URL obfuscator to alter links to those sites.  I promise you I’m not redirecting you to porn 🙂

(1) Divine Sign for Israel? Hagee Explains Blood Moons (CBN article being debunked)
http://www.donotlink.com/gp0

(2) Jewish Holidays and Festivals for 2014, 2015, 2016 (Chabab.org)
http://www.chabad.org/holidays/default_cdo/jewish/holidays.htm

(3) Full Moon Calendar – dates and times for 2014, 2015, 2016
http://moongiant.com/Full_Moon_New_Moon_Calendar.php

(4) Alan Taylor (2002). American colonies; Vol 1, Penguin History of the United States, p. 40. ISBN 9780142002100
http://books.google.com/books?id=NPoAQRgkrOcC&pg=PA40&dq=pre-Columbian+population+million&cd=6#v=onepage&q=pre-Columbian%20population%20million&f=false

(5) So, Who Did Discover America?
http://www.historytoday.com/s-frederick-starr/so-who-did-discover-america

(6) Jewish Virtual Library, Chapter 8: The 1973 Yom Kippur War
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/myths3/MF1973.html

(7) Lunar Eclipses: 1971 – 1980
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEdecade/LEdecade1971.html

(8) The Six-Day War: Background & Overview
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/History/67_War.html

(9) Catalog of Lunar Eclipses: 1901 to 2000
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LE1901-2000.html

(10) New Age followers still waiting for aliens to beam them up 15 years after Heaven’s Gate cult suicides left 39 people dead
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2120869/Heavens-Gate-cult-committed-mass-suicide-15-years-ago.html

(11) Alignment 2012 by John Major Jenkins
http://www.donotlink.com/bz8t

(12) Major Planetary Configurations (“Astrology- Find Your Fate”)
http://www.donotlink.com/bz8s

(13) Key Dates in Israel’s History
http://archive.adl.org/israel/advocacy/chronology.html#.VDbmyRaV00o

(14)  Jewish Calendar
http://www.jewfaq.org/calendar.htm

(15) Wounded Knee
http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/knee.htm

(16) NASA Five Millennium Catalog of Lunar Eclipses (1401 to 1500)
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LE1401-1500.html

(17) Hebrew Calendar 2271 – 2272 (Roman year 1940 B.C.)
http://www.cgsf.org/dbeattie/calendar/?roman=1490b.c.e

(18) Hebrew Calendar 2268 – 2269 (Roman year 1943 B.C.)
http://www.cgsf.org/dbeattie/calendar/?roman=1493b.c.e

A Snail’s Tale: Debunking a Global Flood

Consider the plight of poor Discus macclintocki. Actually, in this story, both of them: snails.  A pair of lovers that would eventually become bit players in a Hollywood movie starring Russell Crowe.

Discus macclintocki

Now an endangered species living mostly in Iowa, the two particular snails we’re speaking of are even more endangered at the moment, because they’ve just stepped… err… slithered, off the long plank of an ark that’s come to rest on Mount Ararat in what’s now modern day Turkey.

These two snails are having a bad day. It’s a 20 hour, 35 minute flight to the closest airport near the Driftless Area National Wildlife Refuge in Iowa (the only place we know they can survive) but airplanes won’t be invented for several thousand more years.

A 10,050 kilometer journey

There are no buses or cars either. Not that a snail could drive.  They could hitch a ride, but  the only boat in existence has just been ditched on a mountain, where it will be found, unmoved, in multiple locations, over and over again, thousands of years later (6).

These snails need to get to Iowa, and they need to get there in a hurry. They can’t survive harsh temperatures, requiring a cool habitat such as the north-facing talus slopes of their eventual home, where the ground temperature rarely exceeds 50 degrees Fahrenheit (10 degrees Celsius) thanks to underground ice caves that don’t exist where they’ve just been stranded, or anywhere along the route they must travel (4).

Another problem for Discus macclintocki is that there is no food for the journey. These snails feed mainly on leaf litter, but a global flood has just destroyed all life on the planet. The flood lasted for over a year (1) (2), so there’s no leaf litter left behind — it’s all soaked up and rotted away.

Hopefully, some type of miracle will happen and there will be leaf litter available when the snails reach Iowa, but they’re going to have to move fast. They’ve got at least 6,200 miles (10,050km) to cover (8).

The problem is, snails don’t move fast. They’re lucky they weren’t trampled by the elephants and other animals coming down the gangplank of the ark.   References from hypertextbook.com have snails moving between 0.013 meters per second (fast) to 0.0028 meters per second (slow) (6).  Let’s ignore for the moment that we have an ark full of hungry creatures that would love to feed on these slow-moving snails…

And let’s be generous and say that Discus macclintocki is a speed demon and moves at the faster rate, 0.013 meters per second. If this pair of snails doesn’t stop to eat, go to the bathroom, mate, or smell the roses, they can cover the 10,050 kilometers in 24.497 years.

24 years to make the journey to Iowa with no food, traveling non-stop. But there’s a problem.

The life span of Discus macclintocki is 5 to 7 years (3).

So maybe the snails, realizing they were never going to make it to the promised land, decided to stop and breed and let a future generation complete the journey.

But there’s a problem.

These snails reproduce by laying eggs in leaf litter, and require a cool habitat (~ 50 degrees F), and none of this exists where they’re stranded.

But let’s pretend a miracle happened, and the snails somehow found food and somehow survived the post-flood temperatures, and somehow lived much longer than the 5 to 7 years required to make the 24 year journey to Iowa. But…

You guessed it: there’s a problem.

It’s name is the Atlantic Ocean.

You see, snails breathe air, and they don’t swim.

References
(1)  Yes, Noah’s Flood May Have Happened, But Not Over the Whole Earth
http://ncse.com/rncse/29/5/yes-noahs-flood-may-have-happened-not-over-whole-earth

(2)  How Long did the flood last?
http://beyondflannelgraph.wordpress.com/the-flood/how-long-did-the-flood-last/

(3)  Iowa Pleistocene Snail (Discus macclintocki)
http://www.fws.gov/midwest/endangered/Snails/iops_fct.html

(4)  IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: Discus macclintocki
http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/6736/0

(5)  Speed of a Snail (The Physics Factbook)
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/AngieYee.shtml

(6)  Noah’s Ark Found in Turkey?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/04/100428-noahs-ark-found-in-turkey-science-religion-culture/

(7) WordPress Ready, Set, Done PingBack Link
http://dailypost.wordpress.com/dp_prompt/ready-set-done-2/

(8) Latitude, Longitude, Distance Calculations
39.7019° N, 44.2983° E  (Mt. Ararat)
42.4981° N, 96.3956° W  (Sioux City, IA)
Distance 10050 km (6,244.78 miles)

Was the Grand Canyon Caused by a Global Flood?

Was the Grand Canyon carved by a global flood?

No.

There are a lot of ways to debunk this myth. One is to look at the photos attached to this post. That’s the Colorado River winding its way through the Grand Canyon. See all those lazy “S” curves? That’s what slow moving rivers do over long periods of time. We see it everywhere on the planet. Keep this in mind as you read, please.

Now think about the Grand Canyon. It’s almost 300 miles long and around a mile deep. In spots it’s as much as ten miles wide.

Portion of the Grand Canyon from space. Note the 180 degree S-curves. (Image: NASA)

A rough estimate of the volume (how much rock it would take to fill the canyon) is 386,115,840,000,000 cubic feet. If you were kind to the global flood believers and assumed the entire canyon had been filled with light sandstone having a density of 2.8 g/cm3, the total amount of rock that would have to have been immediately gouged out by the flood would have weighed an amazing 33,746,194,212,283 TONS.

That’s over 33 TRILLION tons of rock in one fell swoop. And we’re assuming the rock is sitting there loose, waiting to be moved — which it isn’t — it’s bound to the surrounding rock.  This is supposed to be a non-technical discussion, but for those of you who remember high school physics, think back to Newton’s First Law of Motion: a mass at rest will stay at rest until it encounters a force great enough to move it.  Over 33 trillion tons of rock.  You just can’t get water moving fast enough to do the work, so the discussion should really stop here.

But let’s keep going, for the benefit of that one person out there who’s shouting “but then a miracle happened and the water moved really fast!”

Remember that picture of the canyon? Those slow, twisty “S” curves? Now, think about flood water moving at impossible speeds. Or just think about flood water moving at possible speeds. It flows FAST.

And what does our magically-fast moving flood water do?

It cuts straight lines.

Remember those “S” curves? The ones cut by slow moving water? Aha!

I had a creationist challenge me on this point once, after he claimed he understood Newton’s First Law.  Big mistake.  We know from this law that a mass (such as flood water) will always travel in the same direction (a “straight line”) unless acted on by an outside force.  We also know that if the mass (such as flood water) is acted on by an outside force, such as hitting rock, it will change speed.  It could change direction (be deflected), but that leaves the rock behind (no canyon!)  If the water slows down, it has no way of speeding up again, so it doesn’t have the necessary force to cut the rock (no canyon!)

So at this point you have to choose: was the flood water moving fast enough to move over 33 trillion tons or rock, or wasn’t it?  If it was, then it cut a straight line.  If it wasn’t, then it slowed down and couldn’t cut a 300 mile long channel in solid rock.

The Grand Canyon was carved over a very long time, slowly, as the Colorado River twisted its way through, eroding the rock, grain by grain, as it’s still doing today.

At this point, creationists will inevitably bring up Mount St. Helens, the Washington volcano that erupted in 1980, killing over 50 people and cutting a “miniature Grand Canyon” in the process.

The first thing creationists are forgetting/ignoring is that Mount St. Helens cut its “canyon” through loose volcanic ash and dirt, not rock.  That’s much, much easier.

The second thing creationists are forgetting/ignoring is that Mount St. Helens is approximately 100,000 times smaller than the Grand Canyon.  Using a 1/100,000th specimen cut in loose ash to as a model for a 300 mile long, mile high, 10 mile wide canyon cut from solid rock isn’t very good science.

But in the context of this article, perhaps the most important thing creationists are forgetting/ignoring can be best illustrated by comparing the photo of Mount St. Helens (below) to the photos of the Grand Canyon elsewhere in the article.  See all those straight lines cut by fast moving debris on Mount St. Helens?  See all the S-curves in the Grand Canyon?.

Mt. St. Helens from space. Note the straight lines cut by fast moving flood/avalanche debris.  Compare/contrast to the 180 degree twists and turns of the Grand Canyon in the other images. (Image: NASA.)

In a future post, we’ll look at the idea that the canyon wasn’t solid rock when the flood came. Believe it or not, there are people pushing the theory of a 300 mile long, one mile high, ten mile wide wall of mud. No, really!

(All images courtesy NASA. Used with permission).